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Crisis/LiquidationPRODay 8-12 of 180-day crisis
2008 Lehman Week
September 15-19, 2008
The week Lehman Brothers collapsed and the global financial system nearly imploded. A classic bank-contagion crisis.
What Happened
“Lehman files largest bankruptcy in US history”
Fed Action
Fed expands lending to investment banks, keeps rate at 2%
S&P 500
1,192
-4.71%
VIX
31.70
+24.40%
HY Spreads
672 bp
Elevated
Session
Monday
Sep 15, 2008
What VantMacro Would Have Shown
Regime
Crisis/Liquidation
Confidence: 91%
Most Likely Next
Stagflationary Squeeze
Probability: 65.2%
Historical Duration
Median: 4 days
Based on 26 occurrences
Compare to 427 Historical Transitions
See how this crisis compares to every regime transition since 2003. Get full asset performance data and historical context.
Full regime history (2003-present)
Asset performance by regime
Transition probability models
This case study uses historical data for educational purposes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The regime classifications shown are based on VantMacro's empirical framework applied retrospectively.