M2SL on FRED: Exact Values & Real M2 Explained
Need an exact M2SL value for a specific month? Learn where M2SL comes from, how to pull precise historical values from FRED, and how to interpret Real M2.
What You'll Learn
- Find exact M2SL values on FRED for any date
- Understand the difference between nominal M2 and Real M2
- Learn the formula for calculating Real M2
- Know how Real M2 relates to market performance
- See how VantMacro uses Real M2 in regime detection
Real M2 is the inflation-adjusted money supply—a key measure of how much purchasing power is circulating in the economy. Unlike nominal M2, it strips out inflation to reveal the "real" growth in money.
This article explains the concept, the formula, and how VantMacro uses Real M2 in liquidity analysis.
Quick Answer: Finding M2SL Values on FRED
M2SL is the FRED series code for M2 Money Stock (seasonally adjusted, monthly, in billions of dollars).
How to Get an Exact M2SL Value
- Go to FRED M2SL series page
- Click "Edit Graph" → "Modify Frequency" (set to Monthly if needed)
- Download the data as CSV or use FRED's observation table to find the exact value for your target date
Example values (billions USD, seasonally adjusted):
| Date | M2SL Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 2021 | $19,664.2 | FRED |
| Apr 2022 | $21,722.1 | FRED |
| Dec 2024 | $21,551.0 | FRED |
Note: M2SL is the nominal money stock. For Real M2 (inflation-adjusted), divide M2SL by CPI—see formula below.
What is M2?
M2 is a measure of the money supply that includes:
- M1: Cash, checking deposits, traveler's checks
- Plus: Savings deposits, small time deposits (<$100K), money market funds
M2 represents the money that's reasonably liquid and available for spending or short-term saving.
FRED series: M2SL (M2 Money Stock)
Frequency: Monthly
Units: Billions of dollars
Why "Real" M2?
Nominal M2 doesn't account for inflation. If M2 grows 5% but inflation is 4%, the "real" growth in purchasing power is only ~1%.
Real M2 adjusts for this by dividing nominal M2 by a price index (usually the Consumer Price Index).
The Formula
Real M2 = (Nominal M2 / CPI) × 100
Or equivalently:
Real M2 = M2SL / CPIAUCSL × 100
Where:
M2SL= M2 Money Stock (FRED)CPIAUCSL= Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (FRED)
Real M2 Year-over-Year
For regime analysis, the year-over-year change matters more than the absolute level.
Real M2 YoY (%) = ((Real M2 Today / Real M2 One Year Ago) - 1) × 100
| Real M2 YoY | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| > +5% | Strong monetary expansion (liquidity tailwind) |
| 0% to +5% | Expansion |
| -5% to 0% | Mild contraction |
| < -5% | Strong contraction (liquidity headwind) |
Why Real M2 Matters
1. More Accurate Than Nominal
Nominal M2 can rise while real purchasing power falls. In 2022, nominal M2 was bloated from COVID stimulus, but Real M2 YoY went deeply negative as inflation surged.
2. Leads Economic Activity
Real M2 changes often precede shifts in economic growth and asset prices. When real money supply contracts, spending power drops—eventually affecting demand.
3. Central to Liquidity Analysis
Real M2 is one of VantMacro's key inputs for the Liquidity & Policy dimension:
- Real M2 rising → Liquidity improving
- Real M2 falling → Liquidity contracting
Historical Context
Real M2 can swing dramatically during policy shocks. Using M2SL deflated by CPIAUCSL:
- Peak: +24.62% YoY (Feb 2021) during the COVID stimulus and quantitative easing (QE) surge
- Trough: -9.18% YoY (Apr 2023) — the lowest reading in the available data (1959-present)
For reference:
- +21.94% (Jun 2020)
- +4.72% (Dec 2021)
- -7.13% (Dec 2022)
- -5.58% (Dec 2023)
- +0.60% (Dec 2024)
Interpretation: Real money growth turned sharply negative as inflation surged and nominal money growth slowed—an environment that has historically been challenging for risk assets.
Real M2 vs Nominal M2
| Aspect | Nominal M2 | Real M2 |
|---|---|---|
| What it measures | Total money supply | Purchasing power |
| Adjusts for inflation | No | Yes |
| Better for regimes | ❌ | ✅ |
| FRED series | M2SL | M2SL / CPIAUCSL (calculated) |
Use Real M2 for regime analysis and liquidity assessment. Use Nominal M2 only for understanding the raw size of money supply.
Real M2 vs Net Liquidity
Both are liquidity measures, but they capture different things:
| Aspect | Real M2 | Net Liquidity |
|---|---|---|
| Focus | Purchasing power in economy | Spendable Fed liquidity |
| Scope | Broad (all M2 money) | Narrow (Fed balance sheet minus drains) |
| Components | M2 / CPI | Fed Assets - TGA - RRP |
| Update frequency | Monthly | Weekly |
VantMacro uses both:
- Real M2 for the broad money picture
- Net Liquidity for Fed-specific dynamics
How to Track Real M2
DIY with FRED
- Download
M2SL(M2 Money Stock, billions, monthly) - Download
CPIAUCSL(CPI, index) - Calculate:
Real M2 = M2SL / CPIAUCSL × 100 - Calculate YoY:
(Current / 12 months ago) - 1
VantMacro Dashboard
VantMacro calculates Real M2 automatically and displays:
- Real M2 YoY with historical trend
- Integration with Net Liquidity
- Context for regime classification
Frequently Asked Questions
How do I find the exact M2SL value for a specific month on FRED?
Go to fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL, click the date range you need, and download the CSV. You can also use FRED's API for programmatic access. For example, the M2SL value for February 2021 was $19,664.2 billion.
What are the units of M2SL (M2 Money Stock)?
M2SL is measured in billions of U.S. dollars, seasonally adjusted. The series is released monthly by the Federal Reserve.
Is M2SL seasonally adjusted?
Yes. M2SL is the seasonally adjusted version of M2 Money Stock. Use M2SL (not M2NS) for analysis to avoid seasonal noise.
Why does Real M2 YoY go negative?
When CPI inflation rises faster than nominal M2 growth. This happened in 2022: nominal M2 was flat-to-slightly-down, but CPI was +6-9%, making Real M2 YoY deeply negative.
Is Real M2 a leading indicator?
Partially. Changes in Real M2 often precede economic shifts by 3-6 months, but the lead time is variable. Use it as context, not a timing signal.
How does Real M2 relate to Fed policy?
The Fed doesn't directly target M2, but its policies (rate hikes, QT) affect money creation. Higher rates reduce loan growth; QT reduces reserves—both slow M2 growth.
Summary
| Concept | Value |
|---|---|
| What is M2? | Cash + savings + money markets |
| What is Real M2? | M2 adjusted for inflation |
| Formula | M2SL / CPIAUCSL × 100 |
| Key metric | Real M2 YoY change |
| VantMacro use | Input for Liquidity & Policy dimension |
Real M2 tells you whether the economy has more or less purchasing power than a year ago—a fundamental input for understanding liquidity conditions.
Data Sources
- FRED series: M2 Money Stock (
M2SL) — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL - FRED series: CPI for All Urban Consumers (
CPIAUCSL) — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL
Methodology
- Defines Real M2 as an inflation-adjusted money supply proxy:
Real M2 = (M2SL / CPIAUCSL) × 100. - Focuses on the YoY change in Real M2 as a practical way to gauge whether purchasing power liquidity is expanding or contracting.
- Uses seasonally adjusted M2 (
M2SL) to reduce seasonal noise in comparisons across months.
Limitations
- Monetary aggregates are imperfect (financial innovation and regulatory changes can alter how money “behaves” without changing the headline series much).
- CPI is a broad price index; Real M2 is a proxy for purchasing power, not a precise measure of “liquidity available to markets”.
- Lead times to growth/asset returns vary; use the indicator as context, not a timing model.
Further Reading
- What is Net Liquidity? — The other key liquidity measure
- The Complete Guide to Global Liquidity — The full picture
Track Real M2 on VantMacro
- Real M2 YoY calculated automatically
- Historical trend analysis
- Integration with Net Liquidity and regime detection